What is Net-Zero?
When people hear the term ‘Net Zero’ they often hold the false assumption that this refers to the complete abolition of CO2 emissions. Some of them think we must stop emitting any CO2, erase its existence, and perhaps even stop breathing to achieve net zero. This is far from the truth; Net Zero instead refers to the systematic nullification of excess CO2 emissions. Essentially, achieving Net Zero means limiting CO2 emissions to a sustainable level in which any manmade emissions can then be absorbed and stored by nature. This would mean that over time, we only emit sustainable atmospheric levels of CO2 that can be cancelled out via natural processes.
This isn’t a big ask for nations and corporations to achieve. It is so within reach – so much so, that it is frustrating to witness how we continue to fail to reach it. We, as individuals, can limit our CO2 emissions to the best of our ability in our daily lives, but our future, our fate, still rests in the hands of our policymakers. Our policymakers, leaders, and parties need to force the minimisation of emissions in the energy sector, industry, and agricultural sectors.
Many nations and politicians have promised to reach this goal, but have they kept their promise?
The Promises…
One notable example of a recent international treaty addressing net zero and global warming is the Paris Agreement, which was enforced as a legally binding international treaty in November 2016. The treaty devised plans to reduce CO2 emissions and reach net zero by 2050. 195 international parties signed the agreement, all signing parties making up 88% of the total global emissions of CO2. This signifies these nations’ commitment to Net Zero since they are legally bound to enact the signposts of the Paris Agreement.
The Statistics
For us to have a strong possibility of fulfilling our pledge, current emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010, which will bring us on track to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050, as promised in the Paris Agreement. However, as of 2024, there has been no progress and it is predicted that by 2030 we will have increased emissions by 9%, compared to 2010. Hence, we have not made progress towards achieving Net Zero, and instead regressed as shown by the significant increase of CO2. ect. Evidently, Parties are not keeping their promise.
The Economics
According to a 2018 study called The New Climate Economy Analysis, it is challenging to forecast the cost and benefits of aiming for Net Zero. However, they have predicted an estimated global infrastructure investment alone would cost $90 trillion by 2030. Although the cost seems significant, we must decide quickly to make these investments. The study estimates this investment would be repaid four times over and result in sustainable and climate-friendly economic growth in the long run.
Will we Ever Grasp an End to Global Warming?
As exhibited by the data and current trends, our policymakers have not kept their promises. Although pledges have been made, and signposts considered we are not achieving what we set out to achieve. The sad truth is, that even if we reach Net Zero, global warming will not stop. The longer it takes us to reach net zero, the greater the risk global warming will continue for decades or millennia even after those that pledged to the Paris Agreement halt greenhouse gas emissions.
Even with the current goals we are failing to adhere to, global warming will likely not stop at 2-degrees above pre-industrial temperatures. This means that our carbon budgets which are per the Paris Agreement should be even smaller.
If we only reach Net Zero after a 2-degree rise in temperature there is an estimated 33% chance that the planet will continue to warm past 2.3 degrees. To ease the many severe effects of climate change, ideally, we would be aiming for a maximum of 1.5-degree rise in temperature.
Overall, we have no conclusive predictions for the outcomes of global warming. Researchers speculate that CO2 is not the only factor we should be investigating. We need to consider the loss of forests, melting of the permafrost, changing ocean currents, and shrinking ice sheets among many other factors.
With all these unknowns and factors which we cannot directly control, reaching Net Zero as soon as possible is the most crucial milestone for humankind in ensuring that the planet remains habitable.
Some assume that global warming will cease once we reach our signpost of Net Zero. However, some researchers speculate that there is a chance it could continue to increase depending on how soon we achieve our goal. Others believe it is impossible to stop global warming as a current result of making no progression towards Net Zero.
Regardless [1] of what researchers believe, the data is clear enough. We must all be aware of how pressing this issue of global warming is. We should never take it for granted. Any action is sufficient.
Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit. “Net Zero: Why Is It Necessary?,” January 13, 2022. https://eciu.net/analysis/briefings/net-zero/net-zero-why.
IEA. “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach – Analysis – IEA,” n.d. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach Page, Michael Le. “Will Global Warming Continue Even after We Hit Net-Zero Emissions?” New Scientist, November 16, 2023. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2402652-will-global-warming-continue-even-after-we-hit-net-zero-emissions/.
United Nations. “Net Zero Coalition | United Nations,” n.d. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition.
United Nations. “The Paris Agreement | United Nations,” n.d. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement.
World Economic Forum. “Climate Change Is Costing the World $16 Million per Hour: Study,” November 2, 2023. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/10/climate-loss-and-damage-cost-16-million-per-hour/#:~:text=The%20study%20authors%20estimate%20the,around%20%2416.3%20million%20per%20hour.
